Praise for nassim nicholas taleb the most prophetic voice of all. Comments on nassim talebs the long peace is a statistical illusion steven pinker. Not all swans are white, and not all eventsno matter what the experts thinkare predictable. The book was a bestseller, selling three million copies. In the authors point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics it is unpredictable. Antifragile is a standalone book in nassim nicholas talebs landmark incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decisionmaking in a world we dont understand. The books of sanction i the black swan, nassim nicholas. Ironically the same newspapers had lauded the black swan in which this very point was fleshed out very clearly.
Nassim nicholas taleb, the bestselling author, trader and academic has criticised those who describe the ongoing covid19 pandemic as a black swan and condemned the us government s recent stimulus measures. A black swan is a surprising or virtually unpredictable event that can have a massive impact. I had the feeling that talebs every thoughts, intuitions, hobbies, personal tastes and ways of living were overgeneralized and theorised to fit the books main selling points. The name stems from the fact that up until 1697, mankind believed all swans were white. Black swan author nassim taleb on warnings over systemic. Synopsis elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, the black swan is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. In january, he also warned of the systemic risks of the coronavirus pandemic. He advocated for several fixes to those conditions in his 2012 book. Also i got the antifragile and havent started it yet, but plan on doing so. Nassim nicholas taleb s the black swan is a fascinating but deeply flawed book. Taleb administers a severe thrashing to mba and nobel prize. Nassim on why the coronavirus pandemic is not a black swan on march 18, 2020 by arn in audio footnote. Nassim talebs observation, in his book the black swan, is that, after the fact, we concoct a narrative to explain it. Nassim nicholas taleb has 35 books on goodreads with 521104 ratings.
The black swan is a landmark bookitself a black swan. I bought fooled by randomness on a paperback, but to be honest i am a bit scared of reading it again, because it is a huge game changer for me. Black swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own personal lives. Chris anderson, editor in chief of wired, author of the long tail idiosyncratically brilliant. Chris anderson, editor in chief of wired, author of the long tail. The book s central thesis, that the statistical models beloved by mai nstream. The facts are true, the news is fake incerto medium. The hubris of predictions and our perpetual surprise when the notpredicted happens are themes of nassim nicholas talebs engaging new book, the black swan. Taleb has made his living and a small fortune, now transformed into a large fortune by the 2008 market in an unusual way by financial speculation in contexts where he. I finished antifragile last month and now i am reading balck swan. On robustness and fragility incerto paperback may 11, 2010. Engaging and enlightening, the black swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that chris anderson calls, a delightful romp through. The other books in the series are fooled by randomness, the black swan, skin in the game, and the bed of procrustes. Taleb shows that black swans, like 911, cannot be foreseen and have an immeasurable impact.
Beware faux experts who dont pay for their actions. Bestselling author nassim nicholas taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, the black swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Taleb says musks comment on coronavirus panic being dumb. The idea behind the black swan is not original, but rather it is talebs reformulation of the peso problem, which was first studied by milton firedman and kenneth rogoff in the 70. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics. Maverick thinker nassim nicholas taleb had an illustrious career on wall street before turning his focus to his black swan theory. Black swan author nassim nicholas taleb divides the world.
The third part of the trilogy to be published is called antifragile and is, in talebs own words the main volume. Nassim nicholas taleb, whose book the black swan foreshadowed the 2008 global financial crisis, responded to elon musks tweet about what he. Find all the books, read about the author, and more. He made me work pretty hard to get through it, but the. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Nassim taleb, universa investments scientific advisor and distinguished professor of risk engineering at nyu, warned of an acute virus spreading throughout the planet in his 2007 book the black. Enter nyu professor nassim nicholas taleb, who is best known as the author of the black swan, a book on rare events. Nassim nicholas taleb, the bestselling author of the black swan, has published a new book about politics and finance titled skin in the game. The impact of the highly improbable 01 by taleb, nassim nicholas isbn. He is the author of fooled by randomness and the black swan, which has spent more than a year on the new york times bestseller list and has become an intellectual, social, and cultural touchstone. Author nassim nicholas taleb discusses his theory about events he calls black swans occurrences that seem to be totally impossible. Nassim taleb calls an event a black swan if its unpredictable not because its random, but because our outlook on whats possible was too narrow. Gq praise for the black swan a book that altered modern thinking. Nassim taleb, universa investments scientific advisor and distinguished professor of risk engineering at nyu, warned of an acute virus spreading throughout the planet in his 2007 book the black swan.
I was surprised to learn that nassim taleb had a problem with my book the better angels of our nature, because its analysis of war and terrorism harmonizes with talebs signature themes. With its revolutionary examination of the impact of highly improbable events, this new york times bestseller took the world by storm. Author nassim nicholas taleb discusses his book, the black swan in relation to predicting the future, learning from the consequences of the unknown, and the power of randomness. But, the book is a great series of metaphors and analogies and stories. Taleb shows that black swans, like 911, cannot be foreseen and have an immeasurable impact on the world. Books by nassim nicholas taleb author of the black swan. Fooled by randomness and the black swan are the first two parts of a trilogy that the author calls incerto. His book is hard reading and people are either going to like this book or hate it. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet weespecially the expertsare blind to them. The impact of the highly improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader nassim nicholas taleb. But when dutch explorers finally saw black swans for the first time in western australia, the term. Black swan seems much better than antifragile to be honest.
Nassim nicholas taleb s most popular book is the black swan. The impact of the highly improbable by naseem nicholas taleb this books deal with the impact of extreme events, the outliers, unpredictable, unfathomable, rare and random episodes. Not all swans are white, and not all events, no matter what the experts think, are predictable. It his highly unlikely that he would come on sam s podcast. But it was his second book, the black swan, which brought taleb attention on a global scale.